Population Growth, The Car, and Public Transportation

Aug 12, 2008

Population Growth, The Car, and Public Transportation

How will the US deal with sustained “high” gas prices in the near future? We’ve already seen a strong downturn in demand for oil over the past couple of months in reaction to a spike in crude oil prices to $145 a barrel. Some suspect US demand is only recoiling temporarily. How will we prosper while dealing with sustained oil prices comparable to those in the rest of the world? Public transportation has been the answer to many other countries faced with the same problem, but that might not be the best fit for the US.

In the coming years, the US may turn out to be the most marketable place for fuel efficient cars as its geography is less accepting of the benefits of public transportation. European and Asian countries have made incredible advances in their public transportation systems, both technologically and economically, to overcome the hurdles created by high gas prices. Will this be a viable solution for Americans, or will advancements in car fuel efficiency be a better answer?

There are limits to how much the US can harness the benefits of public transportation. Car travel has reshaped the country over the past 20 years, allowing people to move out of metro areas away from major transportation hubs. At the same time, the population in the US grew by 400%. These two factors together lead much of the population to move away from metro areas without limiting connectedness. The same was not true for other countries, where major population growth didn’t occur until after the adoption of cars. This made populations less dependent on cars when gas prices spiked, and more likely to adapt to public transportation.

In the US, a large chunk or the population won’t have mass transit as a realistic alternative to the car, as those systems are not in place and cannot realistically be put in place to help those living outside of metro areas. That means fuel efficient cars will have to take on the challenge of those grappling with high gas prices. It has happened in the past, during the 1980’s as a reaction to the 1979 oil shock when consumers immediately shifted to more fuel efficient cars. Although Americans drove more miles in the early 80’s than the late 70’s, less gasoline was consumed per year in the 80’s because of advancements in fuel efficiency. Those advancements pale in comparison to what’s being developed today with fuel cell technology and the pursuit of entirely electric powered cars.

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Population Growth, The Car, and Public Transportation

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